Methodology
From 5,994 cases to 38 recurring failure patterns.
Every number in our reports comes from the same structured process.
Here is how it works.
What we start with
- 3.5 years of observation (March 2023 to September 2026)
- 5,994 documented cases
- 5,779 decisive cases (clear outcome)
- 883 proven cases
- 4,896 failed cases
- 38 recurring failure patterns
- 11,288 distinct tools
- 14 categories covered
Every case is one of three case types: proven (A), failed (B), or service (C).
Cases classified as ambiguous or non-cases are excluded.
Every case comes from publicly accessible online communities. No paid sources,
no hearsay.
The dataset is not static. Collection is ongoing. New cases enter the pipeline
continuously, and each report reflects the state as of its publication date.
The next report will cover more cases, a longer window, and an updated pattern
map.
How a story becomes a case
- Story. A raw forum post. Unstructured, one person's account.
- Case. The same information, structured on five dimensions.
- Comparison. What is different between two similar cases.
- Pattern. What repeats across many independent cases.
- Insight. What the pattern means, and where it does not hold.
- Decision. What to check before you commit money or time.
This is the six-step process behind every case in every report.
What we check
Every failed case in the dataset maps to one of four mechanisms.
- Platform Enforcement. Accounts restricted, ads rejected, rules enforced.
- Algorithmic Suppression. Reach drops without a policy violation.
- Method & Content Failure. The method itself breaks, not the platform.
- Demand Failure. Traffic arrives, conversions don't.
The full Failure Report maps all 38 recurring patterns into these four, and shows
where each one appears.
What we don't know
The honest version.
Every analysis has limits, and we name ours:
- Reported outcomes are not independently audited. We document what was claimed.
- Failure is overrepresented in the source. Forums attract people who are stuck and people who document what went wrong. Successful methods are discussed less often, because they raise fewer questions.
- Methods age. What worked in 2023 may not work in 2026.
- We analyze reports, not experiments. No method in our dataset was run by us.
We disclose these limitations because a realistic assessment is more useful than a
perfect-sounding one.